Working out when to travel (spring 2016)

My previous two trips to Japan have both been in autumn. In 2012 we visited for 2.5 weeks in September/ October. In 2013, we had almost 3 weeks across October/ November. That last week was in Kyushu so the weather was still glorious.

I am planning a return trip for 2016 and would like to be there for koyo this time.

That said, I don't want to organise the entirety of the itinerary to chase the koyo (not least because if it's late or early by a week or two, we'll miss it everywhere).

I am planning on a 4 week trip, and thinking the best option may be to travel from north to south, so that we have best chance of intersecting the sweep of peak blossoms somewhere along the route.

I currently have 5 loose 1-week blocks which I will obviously narrow down to 4 before booking.

A) Hokkaido (probably southern part only)
B) Northern Tohoku + Kanazawa
C) Tokyo environs (Nikko, Yokahama, Hakone)
D) Kansai region
E) Chugoku or Shikoku

I would prefer to avoid Golden Week with all the accompanying price hikes/ unavailability on hotels and packed transport.

Right now I'm considering last 2 weeks of March and first 2 weeks of April.

But I understand that even early April is still one of the most crowded times because of spring break school holidays?

Is that correct?

If koyo follows 2015 timings, we'd expect to hit peak blossom in week 3 if we're somewhere in central Japan by then. If it's early, we'll hit it further north, if it's late, we have a chance to see it in our final week.

Does that make sense or am I hopelessly confusing myself?

There is a downside to this timing/ itinerary, which is that Hokkaido will still be pretty darn cold in mid March - not yet in the depths of winter, with all the winter attractions, but certainly not yet into spring either.

Thoughts?

If we skip Hokkaido and start in Tohoku, the weather may be better. That would put us in Kansai for first week of April.

At this point, I can move the dates in either direction, so that's what I need input on. The actual itinerary I can pin down once I've got those flights locked in!

I've hit that analysis paralysis point, so would welcome some friendly nudges, steers or downright pokes!

Thank you!

Sorry, comes of writing late at night, I don't mean koyo (fall), obviously, I mean cherry blossom viewing.

Hokkaido and Tohoku won't have cherry blossoms until the end of April / early May.

The cherry blossoms don't bloom at the exact same time each year, so it's impossible to predict the sakura for 2016.
A good time for cherry blossoms in the Kansai and Kanto region is late March / early April.
In Kyushu and parts of Shikoku they're usually a bit earlier.
There are also early-blooming sakura, e.g. on the Izu Peninsula (Kawazu).

Why not go all the way south in March (warmer) and head north slower than the cherry front? Also, different trees bloom at different times, so it is not so hit-and-miss.

I agree with JapanCustomTours. If you go north to south, you'll hit cherry blossoms somewhere along the way to be sure, but it'll be at whatever point they're in full bloom. Before that it'll be too early, after too late. If you go south-north, you've got a greater chance of following the blossoms up more in time with their timing. Plus during the entire time, you'll hit early/late blooming varieties no problem.

For crowds, most schools have around last week of March/first week of April off. My schools generally finished Marsh 26-28 and were back April 5-7. This depends on the year, as it changes every year, but you can expect that time period to have more crowds. However, it's a short break for students, and parents don't have the time off, so while places like Disney and Universal Studios are definitely more crowded (especially on weekends!), tourist spots wont necessarily be more crowded because of the school holidays. Kids don't want to go to shrines and temples; they'd rather go to theme parks or exciting places, so those kinds of attractions will definitely be more crowded. I've traveled to Kyoto during this time and it wasn't significantly more crowded than any other time I've been.

March is going to be cold. That's another benefit of going south to north; while it wont be MUCH warmer in Tohoku/Hokkaido in April, it'll be warming up, and you'll get some nice days. However note that regardless of where you are, Spring weather is a lot more unpredictable than fall, and you'll need to plan accordingly.

Either itinerary works, but if it were my personal choice, I'd start in Kyushu and end up north somewhere. That gives me the maximum time to see the blossoms while still staying flexible to that year's trends.

Hi folks
Thank you so much for your input.

My thinking, and my main reason for not suggesting south to north, is that if the cherry blossoms are later or earlier than usual, we'll basically miss the peak season everywhere because we'll either be ahead or behind it.

Whereas if we did north to south, it would give us that high chance of crossing peak bloom somewhere in our route.

Am still struggling on that.

We would not likely be starting in Kyushu. Although we've only seen a small fraction of it, we did spend 8 nights there on our last trip, so this trip we will look at going to some different regions.

It sounds as though the late March/ early April school breaks are not too much of a worry, and still far less busy than late April into Golden Week.

I agree with other posters with the idea of south to north.

I'd arrive the last week of March, start in Chugoku or Shikoku and time it so that you were in Kansai the first week of April, and Kanto the second week of April, ending in Tohoku in the third week - seeing that Kyoto and Tokyo bloom at similar times I think you'd maximise your chance of seeing something if there happened to be an earlier or later blooming time. If they bloom similar to this year, then you should have peak in Kansai and around Sendai. If they're earlier, probably in Chugoku and Northern Tohoku areas. If they're later, then you'd probably get peak in Kanto.

Thanks so much folks!

We have a development. My dad is our airmile booking guru. I asked him to start looking at booking flights, either for mid March to mid April or late March to late April.

To our surprise, he could find virtually zero seats available already.

In the end, he held seats for the only available options he could get anywhere within that period:

Outbound 29th March (landing 30th) and return 27th April (TOKYO)
Outbound 6th April (landing 7th) and return 5th May (TOKYO)

We really wanted to avoid Golden Week so I've asked him to confirm the first option there.

That gives us our 4 weeks on the ground, but slightly later than we'd originally intended but it does fit well with Mon's suggested itinerary in the last reply above.

THANKS
Kavey

I'd still love some help on planning an itinerary now we have our dates locked in.

Perhaps our best bet is to start in Tokyo environs (Tokyo, Nikko, Yokahama and Hakone) since we arrive on 30th March which would normally be peak blossom in Tokyo.

We could then go to Kanazawa and on into Tohoku (and possibly southern Hokkaido).

Then around abouts 16th/ 17th skip southwards to either Chugoku or Shikoku for 10 days, perhaps we can give ourselves a few days in Kyoto, perhaps we reserve the entirety of the 10 days for Kyoto.

We do have to get back up to Tokyo at the end as we didn't manage to get an open jaw (not least because I didn't know what itinerary I'd settle on and there weren't award seats left to wait longer).

I would think starting in Tokyo or Kyoto would be best. Nikko probably won't be blooming at that time. Seeing you have to go back there, maybe breaking up the time so you have a few days to see Tokyo, then do a day trip to Nikko when you return before you fly out? Also the Shibazakura festival is on at Kawaguchiko in the second half of April: http://japan-guide.com/e/e6919.html

I'm currently planning a month long trip for winter there next year and have found the northern areas need x amount of time minimum to get around and see things. (I've never been any further north than Gunma before) I'm doing one week each in Kanto, Tohoku and Hokkaido, 6 days in Chubu and 4 in Kansai. I tried doing less days in Tohoku and found that transport is so intermittent that it was going to be hard to get around and see things properly. If you're thinking of only doing southern Hokkaido I think 10 days for the two areas would work though. But I do suggest looking up the destinations you wish to go to, and checking out the routes on Hyperdia, and seeing how regular or limited transport is.

Flying from Sapporo back to Nagoya is helping us save travel time, I'd suggest doing the same from Hokkaido to Chugoku or Kansai.

Have fun planning your trip!

Thanks for the tips, Mon, I'll definitely look at transport options when planning the Tohoku (and possibly southern Hokkaido) segment to make sure I'm realistic in terms of travel times.

We can also self-drive if that makes things easier, so I'll look at that as an option too.

If you have a draft itinerary already I'd love to see it!

Driving will be handy. Sadly I have no experience with driving in snow and ice conditions, so that's not a possibility for us!

We're going for all the winter festivals, so I'm sure there will be some other places more worth seeing in spring, but here's our itinerary so far:

Fly in Haneda
Nikko 2 days
Sendai 2 days (Matsushima day trip)
Morioka 3 days (Geibikei gorge and Tono day trips)
Aomori 2 days (Hirosaki day trip)
Hakodate 2 days (1 day at Yunokawa Onsen)
Sapporo 5 days (Otaru, Asahikawa and Noboribetsu day trips)
Fly to Nagoya 4 days (Inuyama half day trip, one day tour to Shirakawago Light Up)
Kyoto 3 days
Nagano 2 days (via Mastumoto, Snow Monkeys/Obuse day trip)
Tokyo 6 days (Izu day trip)
Fly out Haneda

Aah of course, you're going in winter so driving conditions will be very different. I would not attempt that either, I have no experience of that kind of weather here in London. We have only driven in Kyushu in the autumn and that was very easy and relaxing!